Bayesian population analysis using BUGS and JAGS
Instructors: Marc Kéry & Michael Schaub, Swiss Ornithological Institute
Date: 22–26 September 2014
Venue: College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula
Computers: Bring your own laptop with latest R and WinBUGS, JAGS or OpenBUGS
Costs: 603 USD
This course introduces many key models used in the analysis of distribution, abundance and survival, as well as their spatial and temporal patterns, in a Bayesian analysis framework. It closely follows our book “Bayesian population analysis using WinBUGS” (Academic Press, 2012). We use programs R and WinBUGS and JAGS to fit and understand some of the most widely used models for the analysis of animal and plant populations. These include:
- Poisson generalized linear mixed model (e.g., Link and Sauer 2002)
- Closed-population models for population size
- Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for estimating survival probabilities
- Multistate capture-recapture models for estimating survival and transition rates
- Integrated population models (Besbeas et al. 2002; Schaub et al. 2007)
- Site-occupancy models (MacKenzie et al. 2002, 2003) for the analysis of species distributions
- Binomial mixture models (Royle 2004) for the analysis of distribution and abundance with full accounting for observation error
In this intermediate-level workshop 3/4 of the time are spent on lecturing and 1/4 on solving exercises. No previous experience with program WinBUGS, or Bayesian statistics, is assumed. However, a good working knowledge of modern regression methods (ANOVA, ANCOVA, generalised linear models) and of program R is required.
Please bring your own laptops and install a recent version of R plus WinBUGS 1.4., with the upgrade patch and the immortality key decoded (in this order). Alternatively, JAGS and OpenBUGS work fine for 99% of what we do.
Please apply here (www.umt.edu/sell/extended/courses/populationanalysis), describing your background and knowledge in statistical modeling, R and WinBUGS/OpenBUGS/JAGS, by 8 August 2014 at the latest. Workshop invitations will be sent out before 31 August 2014.